The Unprecedented Setback: Friedrich Merz’s Failed Bid for German Chancellorship

Germany’s political landscape was shaken on May 6, 2025, when Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), failed to secure the necessary majority in the first parliamentary vote to become chancellor. This marked a historic first in post-World War II Germany, where no chancellor candidate had ever stumbled at this initial hurdle. The fallout from this unexpected setback raises critical questions about the stability of Germany’s governing coalition, the future of the CDU, and the broader implications for European politics.

A Fragile Coalition and a Stunning Defeat

Merz’s CDU had emerged as the largest party in the February 2025 federal election, setting the stage for a coalition government with the Social Democratic Party (SPD). The coalition agreement, signed just a day before the parliamentary vote, was meant to ensure a smooth transition of power. Yet, when the Bundestag convened to elect the next chancellor, Merz fell six votes short of the required 316 out of 630.
The failure was not just a numerical shortfall—it exposed deep fractures within Merz’s own party. Twelve conservative lawmakers abstained, a deliberate snub that underscored internal dissent. Some analysts suggest this was a calculated move by Merkel loyalists still resentful of Merz’s long-standing rivalry with the former chancellor. Others point to growing unease over Merz’s recent political maneuvers, particularly his controversial overtures to far-right factions.

Merz’s Risky Political Gambits

Merz’s political career has been defined by ambition and controversy. After a bitter leadership battle in the early 2000s, he left politics for corporate law, serving as chairman of BlackRock Germany before making a dramatic return. His resurgence was seen as a direct challenge to Angela Merkel’s centrist legacy, but his hardline economic views and combative style alienated moderates.
The most damaging blow came just days before the vote, when Merkel publicly condemned Merz for tacitly accepting far-right support—a move that further divided the CDU. While Merz may have hoped to consolidate his conservative base, the backlash from within his own ranks suggests a miscalculation. The abstentions in the parliamentary vote were a clear rebuke, signaling that many in the CDU remain unwilling to embrace his polarizing tactics.

What’s Next for Germany?

The immediate question is whether Merz can recover in the 14-day window before a second vote. If he fails again, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier could either appoint a minority government or call for new elections—both scenarios fraught with instability. Meanwhile, the SPD, already uneasy about the coalition, may reconsider its alliance with a weakened CDU.
Beyond the immediate crisis, Merz’s stumble raises existential questions for the CDU. The party has struggled to redefine itself after Merkel’s departure, torn between centrist pragmatism and Merz’s rightward shift. If internal divisions persist, the CDU risks ceding ground to smaller parties or even fracturing entirely.
Germany’s political turmoil also has broader implications. With economic stagnation, the Ukraine conflict, and rising Euroscepticism, Europe needs a stable Germany. Merz’s failure injects uncertainty at a precarious moment. Whether Germany can navigate this turbulence—and whether Merz remains at the helm—will shape not just national politics but the future of the EU itself.
In the end, Merz’s historic defeat is more than a personal setback—it’s a warning sign for German democracy. The coming weeks will test whether the country’s political institutions can withstand the pressures of division, or whether this marks the beginning of a deeper crisis.