150年5次股災教會我們的事

The Stock Market’s Resilience: Lessons from 150 Years of Crashes

The stock market is like a heavyweight boxer—it takes brutal hits but always gets back up. Over the past 150 years, it has weathered devastating crashes, economic collapses, and global crises, yet it has consistently recovered and climbed higher. This resilience isn’t just luck; it’s a testament to the market’s fundamental strength and the importance of long-term thinking. Investors who panic and bail during downturns often miss the eventual rebound, while those who stay disciplined reap the rewards.

The Great Depression: The Ultimate Stress Test

No crash was more brutal than the Great Depression. Starting in 1929, the market lost 79% of its value, wiping out fortunes and plunging the economy into chaos. But here’s the kicker: a $50 investment at the worst possible moment—right at the peak of the crash—would have grown to $108 by 1949, a 116% gain. That’s the power of patience.
This wasn’t just a fluke. The recovery took time—nearly two decades—but it happened. The lesson? Markets heal. Even when things look apocalyptic, history shows that holding on (or better yet, buying when others are fearful) pays off in the long run.

Frequency & Speed of Crashes: From Slow Burns to Lightning Recoveries

Not all crashes are created equal. Over the past 150 years, there have been 19 major stock market crashes (defined as drops of 20% or more). Some were slow, grinding declines, while others were sudden and violent.
The COVID-19 Crash (2020): The fastest crash—and fastest recovery—in history. Stocks plunged 19.6% in a month, but the market bounced back in just four months. Why? Massive fiscal stimulus, pent-up demand, and the market’s ability to adapt.
The Dot-Com Bust (2000-2002): A slow bleed, with the S&P 500 losing 49% over two years. Recovery took longer, but by 2007, the market had surpassed its previous peak.
The 2008 Financial Crisis: A 57% drop over 17 months, followed by a decade-long bull market fueled by low interest rates and corporate earnings growth.
The takeaway? Crashes vary in speed and severity, but recoveries always come. The key is not to predict the bottom but to stay invested.

Investor Psychology & Policy Shocks: The Wild Cards

Markets don’t just move on earnings—they react to fear, greed, and political chaos. Case in point: Trump’s trade wars in 2018-2019. When tariffs spooked investors, the market wobbled. But when some levies were rolled back, stocks rallied 9.5% in weeks.
This highlights two critical truths:

  • Policy shocks create volatility, but markets adjust.
  • Sentiment drives short-term swings, but fundamentals win in the long run.
  • Investors who panic-sell during geopolitical drama often regret it. The smart move? Ignore the noise and focus on the long-term trend.

    The Big Picture: Why the Market Always Wins

    Despite 19 crashes in 150 years, the stock market’s trajectory has been relentlessly upward. Why? Because economies grow, companies innovate, and capitalism adapts. Even the worst collapses—1929, 2008, 2020—eventually faded into history.
    The lesson for investors is simple:
    Time in the market beats timing the market.
    Diversification smooths out the bumps.
    Panic is the enemy of returns.
    The next crash will come—maybe next year, maybe in a decade. But history says one thing with certainty: It won’t be the end. The market will recover. And those who stay the course will be rewarded. So keep calm, invest wisely, and let time do the heavy lifting.